The GIFT Nifty indicates a weaker start to the trading day, indicating a potential gap-down opening for Indian indices, Sensex and Nifty 50.
This morning, GIFT Nifty futures were hovering around 24,739, reflecting a nearly 90-point discount from the previous close of Nifty futures.
Global Market Snapshot
Global markets provided mixed signals overnight. While the Dow Jones edged up to its fourth record close in five sessions, boosted by stronger-than-expected retail sales and a positive forecast from chipmaker TSMC, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the session almost flat.
In Asia, markets were cautious, with investors awaiting key economic data from China and digesting Japan’s latest inflation numbers.
Meanwhile, U.S. bond yields slipped, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 10 basis points to 4.08%, reflecting a mild risk-off sentiment among investors.
Commodities in Focus
Commodities presented a mixed picture, with crude oil inching higher after a surprise drop in U.S. inventories and ongoing Middle East tensions.
However, concerns over lower global demand meant that crude was set to post its largest weekly loss in over a month.
On the other hand, gold surged to record highs as geopolitical uncertainty and U.S. election jitters drove investors toward safe-haven assets.
Indian Market Outlook: What to Expect from Nifty 50 and Sensex
Indian equity benchmarks continued their losing streak for the third consecutive session on October 17. The Nifty 50 closed just below 24,750, while the Sensex dropped 494.75 points to settle at 81,006.61.
A long bearish candlestick on the daily chart signals the possibility of a sharp downside breakout, with analysts warning of more weakness if the Nifty decisively breaches the 24,700 level.
According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Analyst at HDFC Securities, “The short-term trend for Nifty remains weak, and a decisive move below 24,700 could trigger further downside toward 24,500-24,400 in the coming sessions.”
Expert Insights: Key Resistance and Support Levels
Derivative data highlights important levels for traders to watch. Nifty’s open interest suggests strong resistance at the 24,900 and 25,000 levels, while support is concentrated at 24,700 and 24,500, according to Hardik Matalia of Choice Broking.
“A close below 24,700 would likely open the door for further selling, dragging the index toward 24,440 or lower,” added Aditya Agarwal, Head of Derivatives & Technical Analysis at Sanctum Wealth.
Sectoral Watch: Bank Nifty on the Edge
The Bank Nifty also saw a sharp decline, dropping 512 points to close at 51,288, forming a bearish candlestick pattern.
Analysts expect more weakness if the index breaks below its immediate support at 51,000, which could see it tumble further to 50,200 or even 49,700.
“The ADX momentum indicators are signaling continued downside pressure, with options data showing aggressive call writing at the 52,000 level, reinforcing this bearish outlook,” noted Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, VP at Hedged.in.
Investment Strategy: Buy the Dip or Sell on Rise?
While the market sentiment remains bearish in the short term, some experts believe the 6% correction in Nifty over the past three weeks might offer selective buying opportunities. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, advises caution, suggesting that traders focus on a ‘sell on the rise’ strategy. “We could see support between 24,630 and 24,500, while resistance lies in the 24,810-24,900 range for the next session.”
Key Takeaways for Today’s Trade
- Nifty Resistance Levels: 24,950-25,000
- Nifty Support Levels: 24,700-24,500
- Bank Nifty Resistance Levels: 52,000
- Bank Nifty Support Levels: 51,000-50,800
- Crucial Indicators: Bearish candlestick patterns across major indices, heightened FII outflows, and weaker global cues.
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